The Hanscom Family Weblog

The agreement, to be announced when President Obama visits here Monday and Tuesday, represents one of the most concrete achievements in the administration’s attempt to ease relations with Russia after years of tension. But the two sides failed to make a trade deal or resolve differences over missile defense, and are struggling to draft a preliminary nuclear arms agreement.

The blend of success and stalemate leading to Mr. Obama’s visit suggests that it is easier to talk about a “reset” button than to press it. The promise of a new era of cooperation was always predicated on the tenuous notion that a change of tone and shift in emphasis might be enough to bridge deep divisions. But even with both sides eager for warmer ties, the issues that have torn Washington and Moscow apart did not go away with the transition at the White House.

Mr. Obama is less enthusiastic than President George W. Bush was about an anti-missile system in Eastern Europe or NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, but has not abandoned either goal, to the consternation of the Kremlin. Despite American pressure, Moscow has not yielded in its ongoing confrontation with Georgia a year after their brief war.

So Mr. Obama’s first visit here as president will be a test of his foreign policy. American officials said that the larger message is that if the Russians do not take his open hand, he will move on to other priorities.

But Mr. Obama faces a reservoir of resentment among Russians who believe America has rarely followed through on such gestures. “There’s a lot of suspicion that this has been talk, talk, talk — let’s see some real action,” said Vladimir Pozner, a state television talk show host. “At this point, there is a little bit of hope and a lot of distrust,”

Richard R. Burt, a former American arms control negotiator and part of a Russian-American group called Global Zero pushing for nuclear disarmament, said Mr. Obama must overcome that suspicion. “I just get the sense that the Russians are kind of grumpy, so there’s still some sharpness on the Russian side, despite pushing the reset button,” he said.

At the same time, Mr. Obama faces pressure not to go soft on Russia. Mr. Obama sounded a tough note this week, saying Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin still “has one foot in the old ways.” He also dispatched Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to visit Georgia and Ukraine after the summit meeting to demonstrate he will not abandon them.

“We’re not going to reassure or give or trade anything with the Russians regarding NATO expansion or missile defense,” said Michael McFaul, the president’s top Russia adviser.

Georgian officials visiting Washington last week said they have faith in the administration but expressed skepticism about a real change in relations. Russia maintains as many as 15,000 troops in two breakaway Georgian republics despite a ceasefire agreement and last month used its veto to end the United Nations observer mission in one of them. Both Russia and NATO recently conducted war games in the region.

“Attempts by American officials to talk with them in a civilized manner are perceived as weakness,” Grigol Vashadze, Georgia’s foreign minister, said in an interview, comparing Mr. Putin to a bandit. “Of course you can talk with him. But in the end, you know the bandit will end up kicking you and taking your wallet.”

Looking for a breakthrough for his visit, Mr. Obama recently tried to cut a deal to finally admit Russia into the World Trade Organization. But days after Mr. Obama’s advisers visited Russia last month to discuss the idea, Mr. Putin unexpectedly suspended Moscow’s W.T.O. bid, scotching hopes for an announcement next week.

But Russian officials said they are showing good faith, pointing to their suspension of the delivery of an S-300 air defense system to Iran. “In Moscow and in Washington, people have been known to lose opportunities,” said Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament. “We have to hope that this time we won’t lose the opportunity.”

The new transit agreement represents an important step. Until now, Russia has restricted use of its territory for the Afghan war to railroad shipments of non-lethal supplies. Under the new arrangement, officials said, military planes carrying lethal equipment and troops will be allowed to make thousands of flights a year through Russian airspace.

The agreement was a priority for Mr. Obama, who has ordered an extra 21,000 American troops to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Supply routes through Pakistan have become complicated by its increasing volatility, while Uzbekistan evicted American troops from a base in 2005 and Kyrgyzstan threatened to do the same. American negotiators just persuaded Kyrgyzstan to reverse itself by increasing the rent.

But with Mr. Obama about to depart for Moscow, negotiators were still hashing out a preliminary agreement on nuclear arms cuts to announce along with President Dmitri A. Medvedev. The agreement would lay out parameters of a treaty to be drafted by the end of the year to replace the expiring cold war Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

Negotiators are talking about setting a range of perhaps 1,500 to 1,800 warheads and 300 to 1,500 delivery vehicles. But they have not settled on the numbers and Russia wants to tie the issue to missile defense.

The two sides have agreed to create a new standing commission with subgroups on issues like climate change to work between presidential meetings. The Obama team initially proposed a new version of the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission of the 1990s, named for Vice President Al Gore and Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.

But the Russians refused to pair Mr. Putin with Mr. Biden. “Putin’s not a vice president,” an American official quoted the Russians saying. Instead, officials said, Mr. Obama and Mr. Medvedev ostensibly will head the commission, but leave it to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to run.

“This is like a mid-semester report card,” said Sarah E. Mendelson, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who is organizing a conference on civil society here that Mr. Obama and perhaps Mr. Medvedev will attend. “It’s not looking like an A but it’s not a D either.”