July 30, 2008
International Herald Tribune

The commander of U.S. and allied air forces in the Middle East has completed a detailed plan for how air power would be refocused in Iraq if, as is widely anticipated, the number of U.S. ground troops is reduced in the final months of the Bush presidency and beyond.

The commander, Lieutenant General Gary North, described a future approach that would rely on jet fighters and bombers to help ensure the safety of U.S. troops who remained behind to train Iraqis as the number of allied ground combat troops decreased.

In addition, surveillance aircraft would take on an ever- increasing role in spotting adversaries, while transport planes would continue to support a growing Iraqi military, which for now is not capable of supplying itself.

“I have got a deliberate plan, as we all do, based on future requirements, because our job is not only to execute today’s fight but to be prepared for continued integration in the future,” North said during an interview this month at his headquarters in Southwest Asia.

The number of U.S. troops carrying out combat missions is expected to decline as Iraqis take the lead in security operations, while the percentage of Americans who serve as embedded trainers with Iraqi units is expected to grow, according to senior Pentagon planners.

“The challenge we face is that while the requirement for ground combat forces will diminish, we will still have large numbers of mobile training teams out with Iraqi forces doing their mission,” said one senior military planner based at the Pentagon, who discussed future strategy under standard ground rules of anonymity. “If they get in trouble, air power will have to increasingly fill the role of a quick response force. There simply won’t be the numbers of ground combat troops to make that guarantee.”

In Baghdad, in Washington and on the U.S. presidential campaign trail, there is increasingly specific talk of timetables, or at least of “a general time horizon,” for U.S. withdrawals from Iraq. But the talk glosses over the questions of exactly how many soldiers would be left behind once combat troops were gone, and precisely what their mission would be.

There is consensus that Iraqi security forces are becoming increasingly effective at domestic counterinsurgency but could hardly stand up to a conventional enemy from outside the nation’s borders.

And there is agreement that there are three critical military tasks that the Iraqi forces still cannot fulfill: providing combat support and logistics, carrying out high-tech surveillance and conducting close-air support for combat missions.

U.S. forces can be expected to perform those three requirements for the foreseeable future. But even as air power would play a central role in this future mission, the nature of the air force’s participation could change, North said.

For the first time in Iraq, the air force is flying missions this month with the new Reaper, a large remotely piloted vehicle that carries not only advanced surveillance sensors, but also bombs and missiles comparable to those on top-of-the-line jet fighters with pilots aboard.

“I’m looking at the opportunity to complement our manned airplanes with an increased amount of unmanned attack platforms - the Reaper - so that I get persistence overhead at a lower overall cost,” North said.

Not only do Reaper pilots sit in a trailer at a safe distance from the battle scene, but the vehicles also require less refueling and thus can stay aloft for long periods, so the number of airborne tankers would diminish as Reapers take on a growing role.

“The capability that I am providing comes at less manpower on the ground,” North said.

Aerial bombardment increases the risk of accidental civilian casualties, however. In Afghanistan, a recent series of civilian casualties from allied bombing has drawn protests from the Afghan government and human rights groups. And in Iraq, during the offensive this spring to pacify Sadr City, a Shiite neighborhood of Baghdad, there were reports of civilian casualties during the effort to rout militias loyal to the radical cleric Moktada al-Sadr.

U.S. air commanders say they are aware of the risks of collateral damage as a result of an increased reliance on air power, but they say that there has been far less bombing in Iraq in recent months as the security situation has improved, and they hope the trend will continue.

A concern raised in past months by military analysts is that with diminishing numbers of U.S. troops on the ground, Iraqis would take on the role of calling in U.S. airstrikes. That, some analysts have warned, would put a powerful weapon in the hands of ill-trained Iraqi forces who, some fear, might attempt to use U.S. air power to achieve sectarian goals.

North dismissed that concern, saying that only U.S. or allied air controllers would be allowed to call in airstrikes from U.S. or allied fighters and bombers. These restrictions would be part of a program to limit accidental civilian casualties, should bombing play a larger role in the months ahead, commanders say.

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