Thursday, February 28, 2008

Peter O’Neil, Europe Correspondent, Canwest News Service Published: Thursday, February 28, 2008

Canwest News Service

PARIS — The fast-warming Arctic could be plunged into “armed conflict” unless the U.S. takes the lead in resolving rival claims by the U.S., Canada, Russia, Denmark and Norway over a region that could create billions of dollars in new wealth as the ice cap melts, according to new analysis.

Former U.S. Coast Guard Lt.-Cmdr. Scott Borgerson, in the latest issue of Foreign Policy magazine, argued that Washington has to start with a Canada-U.S. agreement on how the Arctic should be regulated as global warming opens northern sea lanes.

He also called on American leaders to take seriously Canada’s sovereignty claims over the Northwest Passage.

“The United States should not underestimate Canadian passions on this issue,” wrote Mr. Borgerson, a fellow at the influential Council on Foreign Relations.

He noted that Canada is among several countries bulking up their military and surveillance capabilities in the north in anticipation of expanded shipping and energy exploration activity.

“There are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region,” stated the magazine’s summary of Mr. Borgerson’s analysis, called Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming.

“Unless Washington leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict.”

Mr. Borgerson doesn’t specifically identify which countries would engage in battle, though he noted Russia’s increasing assertiveness in claiming huge swaths of the region off its coast.

Territorial disputes and the lack of regulations pose “grave dangers” that could “eventually lead to armed brinkmanship” involving not only countries staking claims, but also energy-hungry newcomers eying the north, such as China, he wrote.

‘Grave danger’ of Arctic conflict

Rival claims over resources below the melting ice caps could lead to “armed conflict,” according to a new analysis

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